October 25, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
We can't say that the post-tax credit lull is officially over, but recent housing data lead us to believe it is. Housing starts again surprised on the upside, increasing 0.3 percent in September to 610,000 seasonally adjusted annual units, after jumping 10.5 percent in August. More importantly, single-family starts were noticeably stronger, increasing 4.4 percent month-to-month.
Gains in the immediate future might be tougher to come by. Permits declined 5.6 percent, lead by an acute decline in the multi-family segment, which tumbled 20.2 percent after a 9.8 percent rise in August. The bad news on multi-family permits – which tend to be volatile anyway – is offset somewhat by the good news that single-family permits edged up 0.5 percent.
Improving sales and more construction helped lift the Housing Market Index – a gauge of homebuilder sentiment – to a 16 reading in October after posting at 13 in September. Although the sentiment is still low, it should continue to improve: the HMI component for sales expected in the next six months rose to 23 from September's 18.
We don't want to minimize legitimate concerns, but the tendency is to extrapolate near-term news farther into the future than it probably deserves. Admittedly, news has been underwhelming due to tax-credit expirations, sluggish job growth, shadow inventory build up and foreclosure-gate, but these things can pass as quickly as they come. Indeed, we are already seeing reports that last week's fears of a country-wide foreclosure meltdown were seriously overdone.
In the meantime, mortgage rates remain stable (which also means they show little inclination to go lower), as do home prices, so it's important to keep the long term in perspective. Few people doubt that there's a high probability that a refinance or a home purchase today will look like a very savvy investment five years hence.
Another Reason We Think Home Prices Have Bottomed
Last week we discussed quantitative easing and the prospect of the Federal Reserve injecting more money into the banking system. The scuttlebutt on the street says the Fed could pump another trillion dollars into the system through Treasury-bond purchases. It's no slam-dunk, though; the money supply is already at an all-time high, according to the St. Louis Bank of the Federal Reserve.
Because of heightened uncertainty, new money has had only a minor impact on consumer prices. In other words, consumer-price inflation remains low (though prices haven't been falling either). Much of the inflation associated with the new money has shown up in the investment markets instead, particularly in stock and gold prices.
We think it's only a matter of time before consumer prices come under inflationary pressure. The fact is that even if the Federal Reserve doesn't add more money to the system, the banks could. They are sitting on $980 billion of excess reserves, which could easily be drawn into the loan markets, thus further expanding the money supply.
All this money and the potential for even more money will help keep home prices stable in nominal terms. And it's these nominal values that serve as the basis for home appraisals and loan amounts. In other words, if the Fed's goal were to maintain a median home price of $200,000, it could theoretically pump enough money into the economy to make it happen. It wouldn't necessarily be a good idea, but it is an option if price stability were the goal.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday, September 13, 2010
Housing Market Today
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
September 13, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
Thanks to the Labor Day holiday, little housing news hit the wires this past week. But the dearth of hard data gave bloggers and pundits more time to voice their opinions.
At Housingwire.com, real estate data provider Clear Capital reported that home prices gained 5.7 percent over the three months ending in August. That would appear to be good news, but the analysts at Clear Capital were quick to note that price growth has slowed and will drop next year, possibly dropping below 2009 levels.
It's worth noting that Clear Capital's 5.7 percent gain is a national average. Real estate is local, and becoming even more so. Clear Capital noted that with the various government incentives, residential real estate nationally tended to move in the same proportions in the same direction. That's no longer the case. Today, we are seeing real estate respond more to the vagaries of local markets than to national trends. In other words, prices could weaken nationally, but that doesn't preclude local markets from stabilizing and even appreciating. After all, it takes only one outlier to skew an average. (For example, if Warren Buffett, you, and eight of your closest friends were in a room, the average net worth of each person in that room would exceed $5 billion.)
Meanwhile, over at the New York Times, various bloggers of various reputations were lamenting that markets still aren't clearing at today's prices, which means prices must continue to fall. The logic appears sound: lower prices do stimulate demand and will clear inventory. But that logic is more applicable to trade-value goods – goods that are produced to be sold. Housing is different; it has a use-value component (at least existing homes do). Most of us buy a house as a dwelling, not as good to trade. If we don't like the price when we consider selling, we're more likely to remove our house from the market, thus lowering supply, which, in turn, tends to stabilize and raise prices.
In short, no one knows where housing prices will be this time next year. We think they will correlate negatively with the unemployment rate: if the rate drops, prices will rise and vice versa.
We also think mortgage rates will correlate negatively with the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate drops, mortgage rates will move higher. Granted, that doesn't seem to be much of a concern today, with the unemployment rate stubbornly holding at 9.6 percent, but things can change in a hurry (on one bullish employment report or one spike in the consumer price index), which is why it's worth remembering that sub-five percent 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are the anomaly, not the norm.
The Perspective from the Great White North
Sometimes it's good to get an outside perspective of things, which is what the Financial Post, a Canadian national newspaper, provided a week ago. While a pile-up of weak US economic data has turned domestic consumer and investor sentiment sour over the past few weeks, the view from north of the border is that things aren't really that bad down here.
Indeed, many money managers in Canada are taking a hard look at our markets and investing more of their money. The smart money managers (it's worth noting that Canada avoided the banking implosion that rocked the United States and Europe ) are taking their time to analyze the news. After weighing some of the disappointing data of recent weeks, including weak jobs and home sales numbers, against more positive indicators such as the latest ISM survey, they have seized the opportunity to buy assets on the cheap.
While there is no question that the US economy has stalled and growth moving forward will be modest, many Canadians are convinced that the recovery is sustainable and the chance of a double dip is low. Perhaps we should heed their business acumen and consider the opportunities that have presented themselves.
For the week of
September 13, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Thanks to the Labor Day holiday, little housing news hit the wires this past week. But the dearth of hard data gave bloggers and pundits more time to voice their opinions.
At Housingwire.com, real estate data provider Clear Capital reported that home prices gained 5.7 percent over the three months ending in August. That would appear to be good news, but the analysts at Clear Capital were quick to note that price growth has slowed and will drop next year, possibly dropping below 2009 levels.
It's worth noting that Clear Capital's 5.7 percent gain is a national average. Real estate is local, and becoming even more so. Clear Capital noted that with the various government incentives, residential real estate nationally tended to move in the same proportions in the same direction. That's no longer the case. Today, we are seeing real estate respond more to the vagaries of local markets than to national trends. In other words, prices could weaken nationally, but that doesn't preclude local markets from stabilizing and even appreciating. After all, it takes only one outlier to skew an average. (For example, if Warren Buffett, you, and eight of your closest friends were in a room, the average net worth of each person in that room would exceed $5 billion.)
Meanwhile, over at the New York Times, various bloggers of various reputations were lamenting that markets still aren't clearing at today's prices, which means prices must continue to fall. The logic appears sound: lower prices do stimulate demand and will clear inventory. But that logic is more applicable to trade-value goods – goods that are produced to be sold. Housing is different; it has a use-value component (at least existing homes do). Most of us buy a house as a dwelling, not as good to trade. If we don't like the price when we consider selling, we're more likely to remove our house from the market, thus lowering supply, which, in turn, tends to stabilize and raise prices.
In short, no one knows where housing prices will be this time next year. We think they will correlate negatively with the unemployment rate: if the rate drops, prices will rise and vice versa.
We also think mortgage rates will correlate negatively with the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate drops, mortgage rates will move higher. Granted, that doesn't seem to be much of a concern today, with the unemployment rate stubbornly holding at 9.6 percent, but things can change in a hurry (on one bullish employment report or one spike in the consumer price index), which is why it's worth remembering that sub-five percent 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are the anomaly, not the norm.
The Perspective from the Great White North
Sometimes it's good to get an outside perspective of things, which is what the Financial Post, a Canadian national newspaper, provided a week ago. While a pile-up of weak US economic data has turned domestic consumer and investor sentiment sour over the past few weeks, the view from north of the border is that things aren't really that bad down here.
Indeed, many money managers in Canada are taking a hard look at our markets and investing more of their money. The smart money managers (it's worth noting that Canada avoided the banking implosion that rocked the United States and Europe ) are taking their time to analyze the news. After weighing some of the disappointing data of recent weeks, including weak jobs and home sales numbers, against more positive indicators such as the latest ISM survey, they have seized the opportunity to buy assets on the cheap.
While there is no question that the US economy has stalled and growth moving forward will be modest, many Canadians are convinced that the recovery is sustainable and the chance of a double dip is low. Perhaps we should heed their business acumen and consider the opportunities that have presented themselves.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The Housing Market
Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of
September 6, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
Most people would agree that it's best to maintain an even keel – don't get too up or too down about circumstances. That advice is particularly pertinent when following the weekly housing and mortgage data. The most recent fortnight serves as a perfect example: Last week, the data were mostly down; this week, the data are mostly up.
This week, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index posted a 1 percent rise in June, with 18 of 20 metropolitan areas posting price increases. The Case-Shiller index has been relatively steady over the past few months, and that's encouraging, but we need to keep in mind that the index will be presenting a post-tax-credit market going forward, so we wouldn't be surprised to see some price easing, as long as the mix of homes sold hasn't substantially changed.
This week also gave us news that the number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase existing homes rose in July, with the Pending Home Sales Index rising 5.2 percent to 79.4. The optimist in us believes this could lead to an increase in existing-home sales in September, but the pessimist in us still sees a double-digit months supply for some time.
On the other hand, “some time” might not necessarily be a long time. Economist Karl Case (of the Case-Shiller home price index) provided a useful (if not obvious) perspective on just how affordable houses are these days. In short, Case notes that four years ago, the monthly payment on a $300,000 house with 20 percent down and a mortgage rate of 6.6 percent was $1,533. Today that $300,000 house would sell (on average) for $213,000 and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20 percent down would carry a rate of about 4.2 percent and a monthly payment of $833. What's more, the 20-percent down payment would be knocked down to $42,600 from $60,000.
Case makes another cogent point in noting that in a given year, the number of completed sales is about 4 percent to 5 percent of the housing stock. Therefore, it doesn’t require a large number of buyers to change the overall direction of the market. That's a point we've been making over the past year. And even though sentiment hasn't turned for the better, it's worth noting that it can turn on a dime.
We've also noted that mortgage rates are apt to turn on a dime. To be sure, rates seem to post new lows each week, but the drops have been marginally incremental in many cases. At this point, we think it's more of a game of chicken – holding out for small return at big risk – than anything else. New data, like Friday's employment report, which showed a better-than-expected net loss of 54,000 jobs (mostly temporary census workers) while the private sector added a better-than-expected 67,000 new jobs, can easily produce dime-turning moments.
. A More Sensible Solution
Franklin Roosevelt famously said in his 1932 inaugural address “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Roosevelt went on to define fear as “nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror.”
Fear is one emotion holding back the housing market today. In this case, though, it isn't nameless, unreasoning or unjustified. It's really a fear of potential conflicts. The New York Times reported how a maze of government incentives and regulations are working against each other and Fed policy to keep a floor from forming in the market. In short, one incentive for one segment of the market tends to counteract the progress in another segment.
More market participation is one incentive the government could provide that wouldn't hamper any segment. More demand is the best way to soak up excess supply and stabilize prices.
We think more flexible underwriting standards would be the most inclusive and effective way toward achieving that goal. Convincing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and FHA to jettison FICO scores might be a good start. The past couple years have roughed up the FICO scores for many potential borrowers who would be good credit risks today. Focusing on the basics, such as sufficient residual income and adequate reserves to cover loss of job or increase in liabilities, can be just as insightful as FICO scores at vetting lending risk while at the same time expanding demand.
September 6, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Most people would agree that it's best to maintain an even keel – don't get too up or too down about circumstances. That advice is particularly pertinent when following the weekly housing and mortgage data. The most recent fortnight serves as a perfect example: Last week, the data were mostly down; this week, the data are mostly up.
This week, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index posted a 1 percent rise in June, with 18 of 20 metropolitan areas posting price increases. The Case-Shiller index has been relatively steady over the past few months, and that's encouraging, but we need to keep in mind that the index will be presenting a post-tax-credit market going forward, so we wouldn't be surprised to see some price easing, as long as the mix of homes sold hasn't substantially changed.
This week also gave us news that the number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase existing homes rose in July, with the Pending Home Sales Index rising 5.2 percent to 79.4. The optimist in us believes this could lead to an increase in existing-home sales in September, but the pessimist in us still sees a double-digit months supply for some time.
On the other hand, “some time” might not necessarily be a long time. Economist Karl Case (of the Case-Shiller home price index) provided a useful (if not obvious) perspective on just how affordable houses are these days. In short, Case notes that four years ago, the monthly payment on a $300,000 house with 20 percent down and a mortgage rate of 6.6 percent was $1,533. Today that $300,000 house would sell (on average) for $213,000 and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20 percent down would carry a rate of about 4.2 percent and a monthly payment of $833. What's more, the 20-percent down payment would be knocked down to $42,600 from $60,000.
Case makes another cogent point in noting that in a given year, the number of completed sales is about 4 percent to 5 percent of the housing stock. Therefore, it doesn’t require a large number of buyers to change the overall direction of the market. That's a point we've been making over the past year. And even though sentiment hasn't turned for the better, it's worth noting that it can turn on a dime.
We've also noted that mortgage rates are apt to turn on a dime. To be sure, rates seem to post new lows each week, but the drops have been marginally incremental in many cases. At this point, we think it's more of a game of chicken – holding out for small return at big risk – than anything else. New data, like Friday's employment report, which showed a better-than-expected net loss of 54,000 jobs (mostly temporary census workers) while the private sector added a better-than-expected 67,000 new jobs, can easily produce dime-turning moments.
. A More Sensible Solution
Franklin Roosevelt famously said in his 1932 inaugural address “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Roosevelt went on to define fear as “nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror.”
Fear is one emotion holding back the housing market today. In this case, though, it isn't nameless, unreasoning or unjustified. It's really a fear of potential conflicts. The New York Times reported how a maze of government incentives and regulations are working against each other and Fed policy to keep a floor from forming in the market. In short, one incentive for one segment of the market tends to counteract the progress in another segment.
More market participation is one incentive the government could provide that wouldn't hamper any segment. More demand is the best way to soak up excess supply and stabilize prices.
We think more flexible underwriting standards would be the most inclusive and effective way toward achieving that goal. Convincing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and FHA to jettison FICO scores might be a good start. The past couple years have roughed up the FICO scores for many potential borrowers who would be good credit risks today. Focusing on the basics, such as sufficient residual income and adequate reserves to cover loss of job or increase in liabilities, can be just as insightful as FICO scores at vetting lending risk while at the same time expanding demand.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Would this be a good time to buy a home?
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
August 23, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
Charles Dickens famously begins A Tale of Two Cities with “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Further into that first sentence, and keeping with the opposing theme, he writes “it was the spring of hope, and the winter of despair.” Dickens obviously wasn't referring to the housing market, but maybe the sentiment applies.
It just might be the best of times for some (discussed below), though the worst of times is more easily grasped. Look no further than homebuilders: a few are feeling like it is the worst of times, at least when gauging sentiment. On that front, the housing market index fell for a third-consecutive month in August, posting at 13. To put current sentiment in perspective, a reading above 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions positively. The index hasn't seen 50 in more than three years.
Not surprisingly, homebuilders are expressing the same concerns that most of us are expressing: they sense that the economy, in general, and the job market, in particular, are losing traction. The trend in job creation is particularly worrisome. Weekly jobless claims continue their upward climb, posting a 2.4 percent increase for the week ended August 14 to hit a nine-month high.
The news wasn't all cold porridge and damp weather, though. Housing starts in July posted a modest comeback, rising 1.7 percent, to an annualized pace of 546,000 units. Granted, the gain was due primarily to a technical rebound in the multifamily component, but it's still good news nonetheless. As for the single-family component, it slipped slightly on both starts and permits.
At least mortgage rates continue to help keep the affordability quotient high. Rates did rise slightly across the board this past week, but they remain near multi-decade lows. That said, we continue to advise –yet again – not to wait on either a refinance or a purchase. We still see too much complacency in the market: borrowers thinking that low rates are going to be around forever. They won't, and they can rise in a hurry.
We understand that frustration is keeping many potential borrowers on the sidelines. On the one hand, they read about federal programs aimed at boosting home sales and refinances, and then on the other hand, they face the reality of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's lending standards. Our advice: Try anyway. Borrowers are often surprised (pleasantly) that solutions really do exist.
More Solutions We'd Like to See
For many mortgage-loan and housing investors, the current market just might be the best of times, particularly for those investors pejoratively known as “vulture” investors – investors who seek value in distressed situations.
In one incarnation, vulture investors acquire mortgage loans at a deep discount and then renegotiate terms with the borrower to repay at a substantial discount. For example, if investors pay $100,000 for a loan with a $200,000 balance due, they might negotiate a $140,000 balance with the borrower.
It's an obvious win-win situation: the investor still makes money on his investment and the homeowner still keeps his home, with lower payments and a reduced balance. What's more, cutting the loan balance might be the most effective way to motivate borrowers to resume payments, because it gives them more hope of eventually owning the home.
Over the past two years, less than $25 billion of delinquent mortgages have been sold to “vulture” investors. This represents only 0.25 percent of US home loans outstanding, according to the Wall Street Journal. But the percentage is likely to grow as banks try to clean up their books before year end.
Let's hope that's the case, because vulture investors aren't as ugly as the name implies. In fact, they might be a real beauty for us, clearing the market much more expediently of unwanted inventory than either the big banks or the federal government.
For the week of
August 23, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Charles Dickens famously begins A Tale of Two Cities with “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Further into that first sentence, and keeping with the opposing theme, he writes “it was the spring of hope, and the winter of despair.” Dickens obviously wasn't referring to the housing market, but maybe the sentiment applies.
It just might be the best of times for some (discussed below), though the worst of times is more easily grasped. Look no further than homebuilders: a few are feeling like it is the worst of times, at least when gauging sentiment. On that front, the housing market index fell for a third-consecutive month in August, posting at 13. To put current sentiment in perspective, a reading above 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions positively. The index hasn't seen 50 in more than three years.
Not surprisingly, homebuilders are expressing the same concerns that most of us are expressing: they sense that the economy, in general, and the job market, in particular, are losing traction. The trend in job creation is particularly worrisome. Weekly jobless claims continue their upward climb, posting a 2.4 percent increase for the week ended August 14 to hit a nine-month high.
The news wasn't all cold porridge and damp weather, though. Housing starts in July posted a modest comeback, rising 1.7 percent, to an annualized pace of 546,000 units. Granted, the gain was due primarily to a technical rebound in the multifamily component, but it's still good news nonetheless. As for the single-family component, it slipped slightly on both starts and permits.
At least mortgage rates continue to help keep the affordability quotient high. Rates did rise slightly across the board this past week, but they remain near multi-decade lows. That said, we continue to advise –yet again – not to wait on either a refinance or a purchase. We still see too much complacency in the market: borrowers thinking that low rates are going to be around forever. They won't, and they can rise in a hurry.
We understand that frustration is keeping many potential borrowers on the sidelines. On the one hand, they read about federal programs aimed at boosting home sales and refinances, and then on the other hand, they face the reality of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's lending standards. Our advice: Try anyway. Borrowers are often surprised (pleasantly) that solutions really do exist.
More Solutions We'd Like to See
For many mortgage-loan and housing investors, the current market just might be the best of times, particularly for those investors pejoratively known as “vulture” investors – investors who seek value in distressed situations.
In one incarnation, vulture investors acquire mortgage loans at a deep discount and then renegotiate terms with the borrower to repay at a substantial discount. For example, if investors pay $100,000 for a loan with a $200,000 balance due, they might negotiate a $140,000 balance with the borrower.
It's an obvious win-win situation: the investor still makes money on his investment and the homeowner still keeps his home, with lower payments and a reduced balance. What's more, cutting the loan balance might be the most effective way to motivate borrowers to resume payments, because it gives them more hope of eventually owning the home.
Over the past two years, less than $25 billion of delinquent mortgages have been sold to “vulture” investors. This represents only 0.25 percent of US home loans outstanding, according to the Wall Street Journal. But the percentage is likely to grow as banks try to clean up their books before year end.
Let's hope that's the case, because vulture investors aren't as ugly as the name implies. In fact, they might be a real beauty for us, clearing the market much more expediently of unwanted inventory than either the big banks or the federal government.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Mortgage Market for Aug. 16, 2010
August 16, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
Since the beginning of the year, we've been saying the housing recovery is predicated on a jobs recovery. And although we've been encouraged that we've been making progress on the jobs front in recent months, the latest weekly unemployment-insurance claims news leaves us a little concerned – with claims growing to a six-month high of 484,000. We'd like to say it's an anomaly, but the four-week average has been moving up as well. Unfortunately, this trend doesn't bode well for the August employment report.
We can take some comfort knowing that foreclosure filings dropped 9.7 percent in July, compared to the same year-ago period, to post a second-consecutive month of year-over-year declines, according to RealtyTrac. Nevertheless, there were over 325,000 properties that received a filing, which marks the 17th-consecutive month that foreclosure activity exceeded the 300,000 level. The good news is that the trend remains mostly down in the top-ten metropolitan-statistical areas RealtyTrac follows and that the usual suspects – Nevada , Arizona , and Florida – continue to skew the data.
Even though job growth is weakening, we still think home prices will remain stable. The NAR reported that the median price for resales of single-family homes increased in 100 of the 155 metropolitan areas it tracks, with the national median price for a single-family home posting at $176,900 in the second quarter of 2010, a 1.5 percent gain compared to the second quarter of 2009.
We'd be remiss not to mention the obvious: the NAR's report included a rush to take advantage of expiring federal tax credits. This artificial stimulus has a few pessimistic market watchers expecting home prices to ease in subsequent months. To be sure, the NAR's third-quarter report could show some price easing, but recent monthly price data from Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Authority suggest, if not an up trend, at least a stable pricing environment in most metropolitan areas.
Mortgage rates, in contrast, are in an obvious downtrend. We regularly see the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage quoted in the 4.25 percent vicinity (with points and no risk adjustments), and the 15-year fixed-rate loan regularly quoted in the 3.75 percent-to-4.00 percent range.
So why the relentless downtrend in mortgage rates? The most recent decline came courtesy of a rush to buy Treasury 10-year notes, which pushed their yield down to a 16-month low. (Treasury yields influence mortgage rates.) In addition, Federal Reserve officials announced plans to buy $18 billion of Treasury debt and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities through mid-September. These purchases could further constrict Treasury yields; thus, helping keep mortgage rates low – likely through the end of summer.
What Does Warren Think?
We are speaking of Warren Buffett of course, Omaha , Nebraska 's legendary investing sage. In August 2009, Mr. Buffett penned a New York Times op-ed warning that lawmakers will be tempted to let the Federal Reserve print money (an inflationary, usually interest-rate raising strategy) to deal with the growing national debt.
Today, Mr. Buffett is taking no chances. He recently shortened the duration of the portfolio of bonds held by Berkshire Hathaway (investors shorten bond duration when they expect inflation, lengthen it when they expect deflation), the company in which he serves as CEO. In short, Mr. Buffett is expecting inflation, not deflation, to be the overriding economic concern in the not-too-distant future.
Mr. Buffet has been right, in that the Fed has printed more – a lot more – money over the past year, but so far has done so with impunity. But it's worth keeping in mind that within a system as complex and as unwieldy as our national economy, inflation doesn't just pop up when expected; the timing is unpredictable, and it will likely happen faster than the market anticipates. Therefore, we still don't believe procrastinating for lower rates is a worthwhile strategy, nor do we believe it's a worthwhile strategy to bet against someone who has been so often right as Warren Buffett.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Since the beginning of the year, we've been saying the housing recovery is predicated on a jobs recovery. And although we've been encouraged that we've been making progress on the jobs front in recent months, the latest weekly unemployment-insurance claims news leaves us a little concerned – with claims growing to a six-month high of 484,000. We'd like to say it's an anomaly, but the four-week average has been moving up as well. Unfortunately, this trend doesn't bode well for the August employment report.
We can take some comfort knowing that foreclosure filings dropped 9.7 percent in July, compared to the same year-ago period, to post a second-consecutive month of year-over-year declines, according to RealtyTrac. Nevertheless, there were over 325,000 properties that received a filing, which marks the 17th-consecutive month that foreclosure activity exceeded the 300,000 level. The good news is that the trend remains mostly down in the top-ten metropolitan-statistical areas RealtyTrac follows and that the usual suspects – Nevada , Arizona , and Florida – continue to skew the data.
Even though job growth is weakening, we still think home prices will remain stable. The NAR reported that the median price for resales of single-family homes increased in 100 of the 155 metropolitan areas it tracks, with the national median price for a single-family home posting at $176,900 in the second quarter of 2010, a 1.5 percent gain compared to the second quarter of 2009.
We'd be remiss not to mention the obvious: the NAR's report included a rush to take advantage of expiring federal tax credits. This artificial stimulus has a few pessimistic market watchers expecting home prices to ease in subsequent months. To be sure, the NAR's third-quarter report could show some price easing, but recent monthly price data from Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Authority suggest, if not an up trend, at least a stable pricing environment in most metropolitan areas.
Mortgage rates, in contrast, are in an obvious downtrend. We regularly see the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage quoted in the 4.25 percent vicinity (with points and no risk adjustments), and the 15-year fixed-rate loan regularly quoted in the 3.75 percent-to-4.00 percent range.
So why the relentless downtrend in mortgage rates? The most recent decline came courtesy of a rush to buy Treasury 10-year notes, which pushed their yield down to a 16-month low. (Treasury yields influence mortgage rates.) In addition, Federal Reserve officials announced plans to buy $18 billion of Treasury debt and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities through mid-September. These purchases could further constrict Treasury yields; thus, helping keep mortgage rates low – likely through the end of summer.
What Does Warren Think?
We are speaking of Warren Buffett of course, Omaha , Nebraska 's legendary investing sage. In August 2009, Mr. Buffett penned a New York Times op-ed warning that lawmakers will be tempted to let the Federal Reserve print money (an inflationary, usually interest-rate raising strategy) to deal with the growing national debt.
Today, Mr. Buffett is taking no chances. He recently shortened the duration of the portfolio of bonds held by Berkshire Hathaway (investors shorten bond duration when they expect inflation, lengthen it when they expect deflation), the company in which he serves as CEO. In short, Mr. Buffett is expecting inflation, not deflation, to be the overriding economic concern in the not-too-distant future.
Mr. Buffet has been right, in that the Fed has printed more – a lot more – money over the past year, but so far has done so with impunity. But it's worth keeping in mind that within a system as complex and as unwieldy as our national economy, inflation doesn't just pop up when expected; the timing is unpredictable, and it will likely happen faster than the market anticipates. Therefore, we still don't believe procrastinating for lower rates is a worthwhile strategy, nor do we believe it's a worthwhile strategy to bet against someone who has been so often right as Warren Buffett.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Update June, 21, 2010
June 21, 2010
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MARKET RECAP
Some people are just unsure of where they're going. We'll slot homebuilders into this category. After posting steady gains over the past few months, the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index tanked five points to 17, which means homebuilders have turned sour once again.
The mood change is understandable, given that housing starts sank to their lowest levels in five months. The numbers are hardly encouraging: starts fell 10 percent in May from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units. The good news is that compared to the same time last year, starts are up 7.8 percent.
The drop should have been anticipated. In the previous two months, improvements were driven by federal tax credits, which are now gone. We've noted in past editions that the current activity pattern isn't unprecedented, using the purchasing patterns in automobiles as an example. After the cash-for-clunkers program expired, auto sales plummeted, but then recovered steadily over subsequent months. The fact is, we are transitioning from a government-aided recovery to a more-sustainable market-based one. And while it takes time for the transition to occur, it won't be pain free.
Even though new homes aren't getting the attention from potential buyers that homebuilders desire, more people are buying – at least that appeared to be the case last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase activity rose 7.3 percent, halting a plunge that took the measure the prior week to the lowest level since 1997.
Refinances were also on the upswing last week, thanks to more borrowers believing mortgage rates are about as low as they can go. Our mantra on the subject remains unchanged: rate decreases will be marginal at best. Many borrowers, though, are relentless bargain hunters and want the absolute best rate possible, which leads to the inevitable question: should I lock shortly after applying or wait until the closing date is near?
Sometimes the decision is made for you; some banks require a lock when the application is sent. Many borrowers wish to lock as soon as possible anyway. We suggest that once the rate is locked you stop checking rates; there is no sense stirring up feelings of remorse over a few basis points. Life is too short.
On the other hand, some borrowers are risk accepting (at least that's what they say), and they want those few basis points. To those people we say “go for it,” but only if they are willing to accept the very real risk, and won't be driven to agony, by a rate spike. No one, us included, can know with certainty where rates will be 30 days from now. But if the choice is between noticeably higher or noticeably lower, we'd side with the former.
How Risky is this Market?
The May/June edition of the Financial Analyst Journal featured an article titled “Dimensioning the Housing Crisis” (available for download at CFAinstitute.org). The article is noteworthy for encapsulating the problems of the housing market in a mere 12 pages.
The article is replete with sundry graphs, most of which accentuate just how bad things got over the past two years. One graph features the spike in first-time defaults; another features the seemingly exponential growth in housing overhang; yet another features the precipitous drop in cure rates for 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day delinquencies. The author notes, in pointed prose, that “we have a housing problem that affects 11 million to 12 million units. If nothing is done, more than one homeowner out of every five will face eviction.”
It's a pessimism-inducing article, to be sure, but we remain upbeat nonetheless. Reason being, these problems are well documented today, which means there are few shocks left to rock the market. What's seen isn't what kills, it's what's unseen.
Savvy buyers know that the time to buy isn't when everything is dear but when everything is disdained. Everything in housing isn't disdained, but sentiment remains low. So, we ask ourselves, was it riskier to buy a house in 2006 or is it riskier to buy one today? The sentiment feels riskier today, but the data show that 2006 was overwhelmingly riskier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Some people are just unsure of where they're going. We'll slot homebuilders into this category. After posting steady gains over the past few months, the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index tanked five points to 17, which means homebuilders have turned sour once again.
The mood change is understandable, given that housing starts sank to their lowest levels in five months. The numbers are hardly encouraging: starts fell 10 percent in May from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units. The good news is that compared to the same time last year, starts are up 7.8 percent.
The drop should have been anticipated. In the previous two months, improvements were driven by federal tax credits, which are now gone. We've noted in past editions that the current activity pattern isn't unprecedented, using the purchasing patterns in automobiles as an example. After the cash-for-clunkers program expired, auto sales plummeted, but then recovered steadily over subsequent months. The fact is, we are transitioning from a government-aided recovery to a more-sustainable market-based one. And while it takes time for the transition to occur, it won't be pain free.
Even though new homes aren't getting the attention from potential buyers that homebuilders desire, more people are buying – at least that appeared to be the case last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase activity rose 7.3 percent, halting a plunge that took the measure the prior week to the lowest level since 1997.
Refinances were also on the upswing last week, thanks to more borrowers believing mortgage rates are about as low as they can go. Our mantra on the subject remains unchanged: rate decreases will be marginal at best. Many borrowers, though, are relentless bargain hunters and want the absolute best rate possible, which leads to the inevitable question: should I lock shortly after applying or wait until the closing date is near?
Sometimes the decision is made for you; some banks require a lock when the application is sent. Many borrowers wish to lock as soon as possible anyway. We suggest that once the rate is locked you stop checking rates; there is no sense stirring up feelings of remorse over a few basis points. Life is too short.
On the other hand, some borrowers are risk accepting (at least that's what they say), and they want those few basis points. To those people we say “go for it,” but only if they are willing to accept the very real risk, and won't be driven to agony, by a rate spike. No one, us included, can know with certainty where rates will be 30 days from now. But if the choice is between noticeably higher or noticeably lower, we'd side with the former.
How Risky is this Market?
The May/June edition of the Financial Analyst Journal featured an article titled “Dimensioning the Housing Crisis” (available for download at CFAinstitute.org). The article is noteworthy for encapsulating the problems of the housing market in a mere 12 pages.
The article is replete with sundry graphs, most of which accentuate just how bad things got over the past two years. One graph features the spike in first-time defaults; another features the seemingly exponential growth in housing overhang; yet another features the precipitous drop in cure rates for 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day delinquencies. The author notes, in pointed prose, that “we have a housing problem that affects 11 million to 12 million units. If nothing is done, more than one homeowner out of every five will face eviction.”
It's a pessimism-inducing article, to be sure, but we remain upbeat nonetheless. Reason being, these problems are well documented today, which means there are few shocks left to rock the market. What's seen isn't what kills, it's what's unseen.
Savvy buyers know that the time to buy isn't when everything is dear but when everything is disdained. Everything in housing isn't disdained, but sentiment remains low. So, we ask ourselves, was it riskier to buy a house in 2006 or is it riskier to buy one today? The sentiment feels riskier today, but the data show that 2006 was overwhelmingly riskier.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
June 7, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Few housing market participants were surprised when the NAR reported that its pending home sales index increased again, 6 percent in April, to 110.9 (100 is the base set in 2001) thanks to a surge in sales contracts. April, not-so-coincidently, happened to mark the end of the extension of the federal homebuyer’s tax credits. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was upbeat on the new business, nonetheless, noting, “The homebuyer tax credit brought close to one million additional buyers into the market, which is now helping the trade-up market and has significantly improved the inventory situation."
We can't say with certainty whether Yun's analysis is correct. We've stated in past editions that tax credits bring buyers forward, but don't increase aggregate demand. Look no further than the automobile tax credits from last year. Once the $4,500 cash-for-clunkers purchase program ceased, sales dropped like a rock. Does that mean we should expect home sales to do the same?
We don't think so. Automobile sales have recovered, and have recovered quite nicely. In May, sales for General Motors increased 16.6 percent from the same year-ago period, while Ford's increased 23 percent. Not to be outdone by its larger competitors, Chrysler posted a 33 percent increase. What's more encouraging, the robust recovery in auto sales had nothing to do with tax credits; it had everything to do with an improving economy and improving consumer confidence.
These same factors will likely work favorably for the housing sector in coming months. In fact, they already are. Home prices climbed 6.8 percent in May 2010 from the same year-ago period, posting the largest yearly increase since July 2006, according to real estate data provider Clear Capital. Meanwhile, the number of REO properties on the market seems to be dropping. Clear Capital reports that the national REO saturation rate dropped to 27.8 percent, down from 41.7 percent last year.
We think this is a near-perfect market for homebuyers: home prices are low but stable, while mortgage rates continue to hug historical lows. In many parts of the country, buying a home is cheaper than renting.
But this scenario won't last indefinitely. More Federal Reserve Bank presidents (of which there are 12) believe the economy is sufficiently stable to begin raising interest rates. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoening said that the US economic recovery has the momentum to sustain itself and called for an increase in the target federal funds rate to 1 percent by the end of summer. It's currently hovering near zero. Other Fed presidents have stated that they are “uncomfortable” with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's use of “extended period” as it is applied to low rates.
The bottom line is, when the Federal Reserve starts raising the federal funds rate – the influential rate at which banks lend to each other – mortgage rates won't be far behind.
Up, Up, But Not Quite Away
We were expecting a little more, but at least it's trending in the right direction. We are speaking of the employment report, which showed payrolls rose by 431,000 last month.
That would be very good news, if not for the fact that 411,000 of the new hires were related to the census. Nevertheless, that still leaves a net positive for the private sector. The increase was enough to push the unemployment rate down to 9.7 percent (though some pundits argue the drop was really due to a lower participation rate).
You never want to read too much into a single month of data, but we remain encouraged: job growth and wages picked up from April to May, while the average workweek lengthened. And although moderate compared to past post-recessions, the recovery is looking more sustainable after consumer spending and business investment rose at a healthy pace in the first quarter.
Overall, we think this latest employment report provides another reason to act now in both the mortgage and housing markets.
For the week of
June 7, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
Few housing market participants were surprised when the NAR reported that its pending home sales index increased again, 6 percent in April, to 110.9 (100 is the base set in 2001) thanks to a surge in sales contracts. April, not-so-coincidently, happened to mark the end of the extension of the federal homebuyer’s tax credits. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was upbeat on the new business, nonetheless, noting, “The homebuyer tax credit brought close to one million additional buyers into the market, which is now helping the trade-up market and has significantly improved the inventory situation."
We can't say with certainty whether Yun's analysis is correct. We've stated in past editions that tax credits bring buyers forward, but don't increase aggregate demand. Look no further than the automobile tax credits from last year. Once the $4,500 cash-for-clunkers purchase program ceased, sales dropped like a rock. Does that mean we should expect home sales to do the same?
We don't think so. Automobile sales have recovered, and have recovered quite nicely. In May, sales for General Motors increased 16.6 percent from the same year-ago period, while Ford's increased 23 percent. Not to be outdone by its larger competitors, Chrysler posted a 33 percent increase. What's more encouraging, the robust recovery in auto sales had nothing to do with tax credits; it had everything to do with an improving economy and improving consumer confidence.
These same factors will likely work favorably for the housing sector in coming months. In fact, they already are. Home prices climbed 6.8 percent in May 2010 from the same year-ago period, posting the largest yearly increase since July 2006, according to real estate data provider Clear Capital. Meanwhile, the number of REO properties on the market seems to be dropping. Clear Capital reports that the national REO saturation rate dropped to 27.8 percent, down from 41.7 percent last year.
We think this is a near-perfect market for homebuyers: home prices are low but stable, while mortgage rates continue to hug historical lows. In many parts of the country, buying a home is cheaper than renting.
But this scenario won't last indefinitely. More Federal Reserve Bank presidents (of which there are 12) believe the economy is sufficiently stable to begin raising interest rates. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoening said that the US economic recovery has the momentum to sustain itself and called for an increase in the target federal funds rate to 1 percent by the end of summer. It's currently hovering near zero. Other Fed presidents have stated that they are “uncomfortable” with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's use of “extended period” as it is applied to low rates.
The bottom line is, when the Federal Reserve starts raising the federal funds rate – the influential rate at which banks lend to each other – mortgage rates won't be far behind.
Up, Up, But Not Quite Away
We were expecting a little more, but at least it's trending in the right direction. We are speaking of the employment report, which showed payrolls rose by 431,000 last month.
That would be very good news, if not for the fact that 411,000 of the new hires were related to the census. Nevertheless, that still leaves a net positive for the private sector. The increase was enough to push the unemployment rate down to 9.7 percent (though some pundits argue the drop was really due to a lower participation rate).
You never want to read too much into a single month of data, but we remain encouraged: job growth and wages picked up from April to May, while the average workweek lengthened. And although moderate compared to past post-recessions, the recovery is looking more sustainable after consumer spending and business investment rose at a healthy pace in the first quarter.
Overall, we think this latest employment report provides another reason to act now in both the mortgage and housing markets.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
May 17, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The pig is progressing through the python – the pig being the shadow inventory of foreclosures, the python being the market. According to Barclays Capital, there are currently 2.4 million loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1 million in foreclosure, totaling 4.5 million in shadow inventory. Barclays says that this inventory should reach the high-point this summer and then fall off, as the market absorbs an estimated 130,000 distressed properties per month.
New foreclosures shouldn't distend the market much further. Foreclosure filings dropped year-over-year for the first time since RealtyTrac began measuring such statistics, in January 2005. Granted, we are dropping from monumental levels, but it is good news nonetheless.
The aggregated numbers remain a little daunting, but it's worth noting how foreclosure activity is measured. RealtyTrac adds notices of default, notices of foreclosure sale, and actual foreclosures (so if a property goes all the way to REO, it will be counted three times) to arrive at activity. REOs are still at record levels, but the initial stages have declined substantially, which bodes well for the shadow inventory; hence, Barclays' optimistic prediction that the worst, if not yet over, is close to being over.
All these bits and pieces of housing data eventually work their way into home prices, which continue to stabilize, as demand for higher-priced homes (driven by improving job prospects) picks up and the sale of distressed properties cease changing hands at deeply discounted prices. On that front, the number of metropolitan areas where median prices are rising grew for the fourth consecutive time. In the latest quarter, prices gained in 91 of the 152 metropolitan areas tracked by the NAR compared to 67 in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 30 in the third quarter of 2009. In short, we're on the right path.
But the farther we go down that path, the fewer deals we'll encounter. A year ago, buyers were keeping to the sidelines because they were concerned with catching a falling knife – buying a home at $250,000 only to see a comparable property fetch $230,000 three months later. We believe those days are over, which is one reason we continue to implore those on the sidelines to get in the game.
Mortgage rates are the other reason. Yes, the 30-year fixed-rate loan continues to bob around 5 percent while the 15-year fixed-rate loan continues to bob around 4.5 percent, but they're not sinking, and they won't. Therefore, we see no reason for someone inclined to refinance or to buy a home not to, especially given the optimistic outlook on jobs and the economy and the continued expectation for higher mortgage rates.
The Post-Credit Era
We've been saying for the past month or so that we're not particularly worried about the end of the federal homebuyers tax credits. We also weren't particularly concerned when the Federal Reserve said it would cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities. After all, the only way to discover if a market is truly healthy and viable is to stop subsidizing it.
It's still early to render a verdict, but so far so good. People recognize that the combination of low rates and lower home prices represent a great opportunity, while many shoppers who failed to find a home to qualify for the tax credit remain undeterred and, just as important, rational – understanding the go-go days of the early 2000s are over. And that's a good thing. The market of that era was driven more by speculation and less by fundamentals. And though it was highly remunerative for many of us, we see how it turned out.
In housing, slow and steady wins the race, which is why we continue to advise our clients that today's market offers good fundamentally sound deals that can be financed at good economically advantageous interest rates. Sounds like a win-win deal to us.
For the week of
May 17, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The pig is progressing through the python – the pig being the shadow inventory of foreclosures, the python being the market. According to Barclays Capital, there are currently 2.4 million loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1 million in foreclosure, totaling 4.5 million in shadow inventory. Barclays says that this inventory should reach the high-point this summer and then fall off, as the market absorbs an estimated 130,000 distressed properties per month.
New foreclosures shouldn't distend the market much further. Foreclosure filings dropped year-over-year for the first time since RealtyTrac began measuring such statistics, in January 2005. Granted, we are dropping from monumental levels, but it is good news nonetheless.
The aggregated numbers remain a little daunting, but it's worth noting how foreclosure activity is measured. RealtyTrac adds notices of default, notices of foreclosure sale, and actual foreclosures (so if a property goes all the way to REO, it will be counted three times) to arrive at activity. REOs are still at record levels, but the initial stages have declined substantially, which bodes well for the shadow inventory; hence, Barclays' optimistic prediction that the worst, if not yet over, is close to being over.
All these bits and pieces of housing data eventually work their way into home prices, which continue to stabilize, as demand for higher-priced homes (driven by improving job prospects) picks up and the sale of distressed properties cease changing hands at deeply discounted prices. On that front, the number of metropolitan areas where median prices are rising grew for the fourth consecutive time. In the latest quarter, prices gained in 91 of the 152 metropolitan areas tracked by the NAR compared to 67 in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 30 in the third quarter of 2009. In short, we're on the right path.
But the farther we go down that path, the fewer deals we'll encounter. A year ago, buyers were keeping to the sidelines because they were concerned with catching a falling knife – buying a home at $250,000 only to see a comparable property fetch $230,000 three months later. We believe those days are over, which is one reason we continue to implore those on the sidelines to get in the game.
Mortgage rates are the other reason. Yes, the 30-year fixed-rate loan continues to bob around 5 percent while the 15-year fixed-rate loan continues to bob around 4.5 percent, but they're not sinking, and they won't. Therefore, we see no reason for someone inclined to refinance or to buy a home not to, especially given the optimistic outlook on jobs and the economy and the continued expectation for higher mortgage rates.
The Post-Credit Era
We've been saying for the past month or so that we're not particularly worried about the end of the federal homebuyers tax credits. We also weren't particularly concerned when the Federal Reserve said it would cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities. After all, the only way to discover if a market is truly healthy and viable is to stop subsidizing it.
It's still early to render a verdict, but so far so good. People recognize that the combination of low rates and lower home prices represent a great opportunity, while many shoppers who failed to find a home to qualify for the tax credit remain undeterred and, just as important, rational – understanding the go-go days of the early 2000s are over. And that's a good thing. The market of that era was driven more by speculation and less by fundamentals. And though it was highly remunerative for many of us, we see how it turned out.
In housing, slow and steady wins the race, which is why we continue to advise our clients that today's market offers good fundamentally sound deals that can be financed at good economically advantageous interest rates. Sounds like a win-win deal to us.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Mortgage Market Update
May 10, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
In news that surprised no one, the pending home sales index surged to 102.9 in March. We all expected the months heading into April would produce more home sales, and that's the way it's playing out. What's more, it's likely to continue to play out over the next couple months, given closings usually occur a month or two after the contract has been signed.
Of course, the expiring federal tax credits are the impetus for the spring rush. Most market watchers are expecting a drop once they've worked their way through the system, so we shouldn't be terribly disappointed if sales growth stalls after being artificially stimulated.
That said, we remain optimistic. We think the housing market is sufficiently stable to stand on its own, particularly when considering the latest pricing data released by PMI Mortgage Insurance, which shows the risk of continued price declines is shrinking. Its latest report finds that 93% of the 384 metropolitan statistical areas it follows posted declining risk scores in the fourth quarter of 2009.
In addition to finding a less risky pricing environment, buyers are also finding a more welcoming lending environment. According to the Federal Reserve's latest survey, most banks didn't tighten lending standards during the first quarter of 2010. The survey also showed more banks expressing a greater willingness to lend. We've stated in previous newsletters that an improving economy goes hand-in-hand with less stringent underwriting, because lending is perceived as less risky in a growing economy. We expect further easing as the economy continues to grow, enticing more marginal borrowers into the market.
Consumer spending is another important measure of an economy's health. On that front, personal consumption posted a 0.6 percent gain in March, following a 0.5 percent jump the month before. Economists have been saying for months that the economic recovery would be anemic until the consumer sector became healthier. It appears healthier today.
So, we have a growing economy, stabilizing home prices, and possibly easing underwriting standards. That sounds like a recipe for higher mortgage rates, but that wasn't the case last week. In fact, rates dropped across the board and held near all-time lows. Is it possible we've cried “wolf” once too often and that low rates are now a permanent fixture of the economy?
We don't think so, because the factors that most influence interest rates still point to higher rates. The financial calamity in Greece was given as the primary reason for last week's rate decrease. Money moved out of riskier European investments into safer US Treasury and government-insured mortgage-backed securities, In short, more money was available for mortgage lending; hence the lower rates. But this too shall pass, and likely sooner than most market watchers expect.
Good News on the Job Front
Employment, it's the reason we're hanging our hat on a sustained economic recovery. The numbers are, thankfully, improving. Payrolls jumped 290,000 last month, more than the median estimate after posting a revised 230,000 increase in March that was larger than initially estimated. The April gain included 66,000 temporary workers hired by the government to help conduct the 2010 census and, more importantly, a 231,000 rise in private payrolls. Yes, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent, but mainly due to formerly discouraged workers becoming less discouraged and seeking work again.
The improving employment situation presages good news for the economy, but it also presages higher interest rates. The latest employment news could be the catalyst for the next move in long-term interest rates. Over the past two weeks, investors have gravitated toward the haven of US-dollar denominated investments, most notably long-term Treasury securities, and that's helped lower rates. But with a heating economy, the very real prospect of inflation igniting rises, which raises the very prospect of higher mortgage rates in the near future.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
In news that surprised no one, the pending home sales index surged to 102.9 in March. We all expected the months heading into April would produce more home sales, and that's the way it's playing out. What's more, it's likely to continue to play out over the next couple months, given closings usually occur a month or two after the contract has been signed.
Of course, the expiring federal tax credits are the impetus for the spring rush. Most market watchers are expecting a drop once they've worked their way through the system, so we shouldn't be terribly disappointed if sales growth stalls after being artificially stimulated.
That said, we remain optimistic. We think the housing market is sufficiently stable to stand on its own, particularly when considering the latest pricing data released by PMI Mortgage Insurance, which shows the risk of continued price declines is shrinking. Its latest report finds that 93% of the 384 metropolitan statistical areas it follows posted declining risk scores in the fourth quarter of 2009.
In addition to finding a less risky pricing environment, buyers are also finding a more welcoming lending environment. According to the Federal Reserve's latest survey, most banks didn't tighten lending standards during the first quarter of 2010. The survey also showed more banks expressing a greater willingness to lend. We've stated in previous newsletters that an improving economy goes hand-in-hand with less stringent underwriting, because lending is perceived as less risky in a growing economy. We expect further easing as the economy continues to grow, enticing more marginal borrowers into the market.
Consumer spending is another important measure of an economy's health. On that front, personal consumption posted a 0.6 percent gain in March, following a 0.5 percent jump the month before. Economists have been saying for months that the economic recovery would be anemic until the consumer sector became healthier. It appears healthier today.
So, we have a growing economy, stabilizing home prices, and possibly easing underwriting standards. That sounds like a recipe for higher mortgage rates, but that wasn't the case last week. In fact, rates dropped across the board and held near all-time lows. Is it possible we've cried “wolf” once too often and that low rates are now a permanent fixture of the economy?
We don't think so, because the factors that most influence interest rates still point to higher rates. The financial calamity in Greece was given as the primary reason for last week's rate decrease. Money moved out of riskier European investments into safer US Treasury and government-insured mortgage-backed securities, In short, more money was available for mortgage lending; hence the lower rates. But this too shall pass, and likely sooner than most market watchers expect.
Good News on the Job Front
Employment, it's the reason we're hanging our hat on a sustained economic recovery. The numbers are, thankfully, improving. Payrolls jumped 290,000 last month, more than the median estimate after posting a revised 230,000 increase in March that was larger than initially estimated. The April gain included 66,000 temporary workers hired by the government to help conduct the 2010 census and, more importantly, a 231,000 rise in private payrolls. Yes, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent, but mainly due to formerly discouraged workers becoming less discouraged and seeking work again.
The improving employment situation presages good news for the economy, but it also presages higher interest rates. The latest employment news could be the catalyst for the next move in long-term interest rates. Over the past two weeks, investors have gravitated toward the haven of US-dollar denominated investments, most notably long-term Treasury securities, and that's helped lower rates. But with a heating economy, the very real prospect of inflation igniting rises, which raises the very prospect of higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Mortgage Matters
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
May 3, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index is promoted as the leading indicator of the national trend in home prices, but we wonder if its worth is overstated – given that it tends to obfuscate as much as enlighten. For example, the index showed that home prices in 20 cities increased 0.6 percent in February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis though, the 20-city home price index fell 0.9 percent to 144.03 while the 10-city home price index declined 0.6 percent to 156.8.
So what does it mean? Whether the 20-city or 10-city measure, changes to home prices have been so small nationally over the past few months that the Case-Shiller index has morphed into modern art – journalists and economists make of it what they want, which suggests they impart little value for handicapping the future. And let's not overlook the fact the data are already two months old when released – a lifetime in financial circles.
Things can change in a hurry. Consider the dynamics in the new home market over just one month. In March, sales surged 26.9 percent to 411,000 units, exceeding the consensus expectation by over 80,000 units. Meanwhile, inventory dropped to 6.7 months from 8.6 months, as did mean and median prices, suggesting a shift toward lower-priced homes.
Consumer confidence shifted just as suddenly, with consumers displaying much more optimism in April compared to March. The sentiment numbers suggest to us the labor market is improving, and consumers are much more willing to spend. In February, the mood was the polar opposite.
The one constant has been the Federal Reserve's willingness to hold the federal funds rate near zero, which it did once again after Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed has held the rate near zero since December 2008 and said conditions are likely to justify leaving it at "exceptionally low" levels for "an extended period." The Fed also said that "economic activity has continued to strengthen” and "the labor market is beginning to improve,” which suggests that an “extended period” might not be as extended as many people think.
In short, mortgage rates are as low as they're going to go, and the Fed has proven over the past few months that there is little that can be done to move them lower.
What Now?
It's an important question, since it appears the homebuyers tax credits won't be extended. But it's a question not to be feared. We think it's time the housing market stood on its own feet anyway. After all, we can't gauge the health of a market if it's still supported with taxpayer stanchions.
But that's okay; we think the housing and mortgage markets are sufficiently healthy to stand alone. Pessimism is the intellectual position, but the fact is the economy is getting better: Despite worries that American consumers might hunker down for years — spooked by debt, lost savings, and unemployment — austerity has given way to shadows of a new shopping spree: households are replacing cars, upgrading home furnishings, and amassing gadgets. What's more, wealth – at least wealth measured by equity holdings – is booming.
On the mortgage side, private investors are returning. A California firm recently completed the first private-sector sale of a security backed by mortgages in nearly two years, potentially reopening a market slammed shut by the housing crisis. The $238-million deal was of the highest quality, to be sure, with borrowers making an average down payment of 45 percent and mortgage payments comprising less than 30 percent of income. But as the economy continues to improve and investors become less risk adverse, less restrictive mortgages will be securitized.
Bottom line: we see a growing economy, improving employment, stable home prices, and less restrictive (though higher rate) mortgages in our future. In other words, we see a market for buying and refinancing today.
For the week of
May 3, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index is promoted as the leading indicator of the national trend in home prices, but we wonder if its worth is overstated – given that it tends to obfuscate as much as enlighten. For example, the index showed that home prices in 20 cities increased 0.6 percent in February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis though, the 20-city home price index fell 0.9 percent to 144.03 while the 10-city home price index declined 0.6 percent to 156.8.
So what does it mean? Whether the 20-city or 10-city measure, changes to home prices have been so small nationally over the past few months that the Case-Shiller index has morphed into modern art – journalists and economists make of it what they want, which suggests they impart little value for handicapping the future. And let's not overlook the fact the data are already two months old when released – a lifetime in financial circles.
Things can change in a hurry. Consider the dynamics in the new home market over just one month. In March, sales surged 26.9 percent to 411,000 units, exceeding the consensus expectation by over 80,000 units. Meanwhile, inventory dropped to 6.7 months from 8.6 months, as did mean and median prices, suggesting a shift toward lower-priced homes.
Consumer confidence shifted just as suddenly, with consumers displaying much more optimism in April compared to March. The sentiment numbers suggest to us the labor market is improving, and consumers are much more willing to spend. In February, the mood was the polar opposite.
The one constant has been the Federal Reserve's willingness to hold the federal funds rate near zero, which it did once again after Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed has held the rate near zero since December 2008 and said conditions are likely to justify leaving it at "exceptionally low" levels for "an extended period." The Fed also said that "economic activity has continued to strengthen” and "the labor market is beginning to improve,” which suggests that an “extended period” might not be as extended as many people think.
In short, mortgage rates are as low as they're going to go, and the Fed has proven over the past few months that there is little that can be done to move them lower.
What Now?
It's an important question, since it appears the homebuyers tax credits won't be extended. But it's a question not to be feared. We think it's time the housing market stood on its own feet anyway. After all, we can't gauge the health of a market if it's still supported with taxpayer stanchions.
But that's okay; we think the housing and mortgage markets are sufficiently healthy to stand alone. Pessimism is the intellectual position, but the fact is the economy is getting better: Despite worries that American consumers might hunker down for years — spooked by debt, lost savings, and unemployment — austerity has given way to shadows of a new shopping spree: households are replacing cars, upgrading home furnishings, and amassing gadgets. What's more, wealth – at least wealth measured by equity holdings – is booming.
On the mortgage side, private investors are returning. A California firm recently completed the first private-sector sale of a security backed by mortgages in nearly two years, potentially reopening a market slammed shut by the housing crisis. The $238-million deal was of the highest quality, to be sure, with borrowers making an average down payment of 45 percent and mortgage payments comprising less than 30 percent of income. But as the economy continues to improve and investors become less risk adverse, less restrictive mortgages will be securitized.
Bottom line: we see a growing economy, improving employment, stable home prices, and less restrictive (though higher rate) mortgages in our future. In other words, we see a market for buying and refinancing today.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
April 26, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
In another sign home prices are stabilizing, Trulia.com reports that the rate of home listings where the seller made at least one reduction in asking price declined 26% in April 2010 compared to the same year-ago period. Trulia noted that 20% of asking prices were reduced at least once compared to 27% in April 2009. We weren't surprised to see the reduction. In fact, we were a little surprised a greater reduction wasn't forthcoming. We've noted in the past that sellers are much more grounded in the new-market reality of lower prices than they were a year ago.
The good news is the reality should become somewhat more bearable in coming months. Fannie Mae projects the median price for existing homes to rise from $167,200 in the first quarter of 2010 to $168,300 by year's end. Meanwhile, it expects the median price for new homes to climb from $207,200 to $214,500. Granted, it's not the pace of appreciation we were accustomed to in the past, but after enduring nearly two years of traumatizing price depreciation, we'll take whatever price appreciation the market will give.
The specter of rising prices should attract more buyers, and more buyers are needed to reduce inventory levels that still tilt toward the high side. Total housing inventory rose 1.5% to 3.58 million existing homes for sale in March, giving us an 8-month supply. The good news is that's an improvement from the 8.5-month supply at the end of February. We expect inventory levels to improve further on the March and April push to take advantage of the expiring federal homebuyers tax credits.
These credits were the most noted reason for the surge in existing-home sales, which were up more than expected, climbing 6.8% to a 5.35 million annual rate in March, according to the NAR. We expect to see a continued uptrend in May and June - perhaps to 2007 levels. We're unsure if it will occur, but we'd like to see this final tax-credit push generate enough momentum to maintain the trajectory through the summer selling season.
Of course, whatever is sold will likely need financing. On that front, mortgage rates continue to maintain their holding pattern: We're still looking at 30-year fixed-rate mortgages near 5% and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages roughly 50-basis points lower. We've been warning, and we'll continue to warn, that rates are unlikely to move much lower. We think it makes little sense to hold out for a few basis points on the downside when many basis points loom on the upside.
It's Still All About Employment
The blogosphere has been alive with ominous chatter on the “next wave of foreclosures.” Much of the discourse has centered on homeowners who continue to make payments but have seen the value of their homes plummet, thus preventing them from saving money through refinancing. A few of the bloggers have speculated that rising frustration levels could produce a surge in strategic defaults.
It's a salient, legitimate point, to be sure, but it's also worth noting that people just don't walk away because they're underwater on a loan. The most obvious example is an auto loan: Once a new car is driven off the lot, it depreciates considerably – often to the point where an immediate sale would produce insufficient cash to retire the outstanding loan. In other words, just because someone is underwater and frustrated doesn't mean he or she is walking away. Moreover, he or she is even less likely to walk away if gainfully employed.
That's why we continue to look to the employment numbers for answers. The good news is that the numbers are generally improving, which, not so coincidently, is why housing numbers are generally improving. The bottom line is, if we continue to see improvement in employment, we'll continue to see improvement in housing.
For the week of
April 26, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
In another sign home prices are stabilizing, Trulia.com reports that the rate of home listings where the seller made at least one reduction in asking price declined 26% in April 2010 compared to the same year-ago period. Trulia noted that 20% of asking prices were reduced at least once compared to 27% in April 2009. We weren't surprised to see the reduction. In fact, we were a little surprised a greater reduction wasn't forthcoming. We've noted in the past that sellers are much more grounded in the new-market reality of lower prices than they were a year ago.
The good news is the reality should become somewhat more bearable in coming months. Fannie Mae projects the median price for existing homes to rise from $167,200 in the first quarter of 2010 to $168,300 by year's end. Meanwhile, it expects the median price for new homes to climb from $207,200 to $214,500. Granted, it's not the pace of appreciation we were accustomed to in the past, but after enduring nearly two years of traumatizing price depreciation, we'll take whatever price appreciation the market will give.
The specter of rising prices should attract more buyers, and more buyers are needed to reduce inventory levels that still tilt toward the high side. Total housing inventory rose 1.5% to 3.58 million existing homes for sale in March, giving us an 8-month supply. The good news is that's an improvement from the 8.5-month supply at the end of February. We expect inventory levels to improve further on the March and April push to take advantage of the expiring federal homebuyers tax credits.
These credits were the most noted reason for the surge in existing-home sales, which were up more than expected, climbing 6.8% to a 5.35 million annual rate in March, according to the NAR. We expect to see a continued uptrend in May and June - perhaps to 2007 levels. We're unsure if it will occur, but we'd like to see this final tax-credit push generate enough momentum to maintain the trajectory through the summer selling season.
Of course, whatever is sold will likely need financing. On that front, mortgage rates continue to maintain their holding pattern: We're still looking at 30-year fixed-rate mortgages near 5% and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages roughly 50-basis points lower. We've been warning, and we'll continue to warn, that rates are unlikely to move much lower. We think it makes little sense to hold out for a few basis points on the downside when many basis points loom on the upside.
It's Still All About Employment
The blogosphere has been alive with ominous chatter on the “next wave of foreclosures.” Much of the discourse has centered on homeowners who continue to make payments but have seen the value of their homes plummet, thus preventing them from saving money through refinancing. A few of the bloggers have speculated that rising frustration levels could produce a surge in strategic defaults.
It's a salient, legitimate point, to be sure, but it's also worth noting that people just don't walk away because they're underwater on a loan. The most obvious example is an auto loan: Once a new car is driven off the lot, it depreciates considerably – often to the point where an immediate sale would produce insufficient cash to retire the outstanding loan. In other words, just because someone is underwater and frustrated doesn't mean he or she is walking away. Moreover, he or she is even less likely to walk away if gainfully employed.
That's why we continue to look to the employment numbers for answers. The good news is that the numbers are generally improving, which, not so coincidently, is why housing numbers are generally improving. The bottom line is, if we continue to see improvement in employment, we'll continue to see improvement in housing.
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