Though it might not always feel like it, the economy is recovering. That's what the Federal Reserve tells us anyway (and we agree). The Fed’s recent reading of regional economies for the February and March period suggest continued economic growth, albeit at a moderate pace.
As for housing, the Fed says it continues to lag other sectors, but housing is showing signs of improvement. Realtor.com reports that inventory currently sits 9.8 percent above March 2010 levels. At the same time, the number of households searching for homes is growing, suggesting that demand may be strengthening in relationship to overall supply.
Freddie Mac also thinks demand is picking up heading into the spring home-buying season. Its data show that the rate of inventory growth is slowing: the median age of housing inventory in March sits at 160 days, down 2.4 percent from February.
We don't expect a miraculous turnaround in housing, just a steady, plodding improvement that is drawn along, hand-in-hand, with the overall economy.
Small business is always a reliable compass on the direction of the economy. On that front, the Federal Reserve reports that small businesses are more optimistic about their sales prospects and their ability to secure financing on more favorable terms. More sales, in turn, mean more investment in plants and inventory and more employee hires. As we are quick to say: as the economy goes, so will go housing.
A big concern remains, though. Will rising interest rates be the monkey wrench that grinds the recovery gears to a screeching halt? We don't think so, because as long as the economy continues to grow and more people continued to be hired, interest in housing will grow.
That said, rising mortgage rates are in our future, because more inflation is in our future. In fact, inflation is already here. Producer price inflation is running at a 5.7-percent annual clip. We expect the rate at which producers will pass their higher costs onto consumers will accelerate in coming months, and we are not alone in that sentiment: Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon recently stated, “Inflation is going to be serious. We are seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.”
For now, mortgage rates remain subdued; namely due to economic and political uncertainties in other parts of the world. Events in the foreign debt markets, the disaster in Japan and the upheaval in the Middle East have helped keep rates low over the past few weeks. However, today's upheaval will be short lived and pressure for higher rates will continue to rise.
Is Rental Real Estate the Next Big Opportunity?
It could very well be. Residential r ental vacancy rates are below the 10-percent mark, where they had been lodged for most of the past three years. Peggy Alford, president of Rent.com, predicts that by 2012 the vacancy rate will hover at a mere 5 percent.
Since 2002, rental rates have been flat, and down of late (inflation-adjusted). If Rent.com projections are anywhere close to expectations, we could see a rise in rents of 15 percent over the next two years. That would be a significant reversal of fortune: rent hikes have averaged less than 1 percent annually over the past decade, according to Commerce Department statistics.
Pent up demand appears real: More than 1.2 million young adults moved back with their parents from 2005 to 2010, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Many others doubled up together. Now that the recession is over, many of these young people are ready to find new living quarters, mostly as renters. Where there are renters, there must be property owners (even if they are not occupants). As rental rates increase, the capitalized market value of property increases too – that means rising real estate prices.
We've frequently noted that opportunities always abound, regardless of the perceived direness of current circumstances. The outlook in the rentals is another reason we think they abound in the residential real estate market.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of
April 4, 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index always attracts a good deal of media attention. This month's edition was no different. In fact, because of a strong pessimistic bias, it probably drew more attention than it should have.
Once again, falling home prices elevated fears of a double-dip recession in the home-buying market and a longer slog toward recovery than once anticipated. According to Case-Shiller, the average sale price of single-family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1 percent from December and 3.1 percent from a year ago. Only two areas – San Diego and Washington – recorded price increases year-over-year.
We offer our usual caveats with the Case-Shiller index: For one, it's two months in arrears. Recent data on home prices have been less dour. In addition, 20 metropolitan areas is hardly a complete picture. Real estate is much more localized than it was during the recession. Even within major metropolitan areas, we see differences in pricing trends. So, yes, on a national level prices have fallen, and have fallen 31 percent since the 2006 highs. However, prices, like mortgage rates, can go only so low, and there isn't much room on the downside, as many local markets have already shown.
It's also worth noting that the pending home sales index rose 2.1 percent in February, which is encouraging when considering how miserable the weather was in February. What's more, the pending home sales index has trended higher since bottoming in June, with contract activity 20 percent above the low point. More activity isn't a price panacea, but it helps.
Shadow inventory has been the counterclaim, because it continues to apply downward pricing pressure. The good news is that shadow inventory is improving. CoreLogic reports that 1.8 million properties make up the shadow inventory of foreclosures, but that's down 11 percent from a year ago. We expect this inventory to dissipate further, thanks to robust economic growth and a pickup in job creation and wage growth.
Low financing rates will also help the liquidation process. A quote below 5 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains the norm. To be honest, the norm has held longer than we had expected. That's a good thing, to be sure, but it does tend to induce complacency and procrastination at times.
Buyers these days have to balance high inventory levels against the likelihood of higher mortgage rates. Excess supply is a persuasive argument to house shop at a leisurely pace. However, just because rising prices aren't an immediate concern doesn't mean rising mortgage rates aren't. We noted in last week's commentary that buyers have the best of both worlds – low mortgage rates and low home prices. We doubt we will be saying that this time next year.
Although rates have headed higher, but not as high as many, including us, would have thought. Granted, we were right in saying that rates holding under 4 percent were unlikely, but that was an easy call. Four percent simply isn't sustainable when inflation is the norm.
Inflation is the reason we still think rates are headed higher. Many market watchers have been lulled into a false sense of security because consumer and producer prices – though rising in the past two months – haven't spiked out of control.
There are many variables that go into prices – productivity gains, technology, consumer demand – all of which can offset the increase in money supply that has occurred over the past two years. It can't last forever. If we peruse any long-term chart of consumer and producer prices, we see that prices rise persistently higher. As a corollary, when we peruse a chart of the US dollar, we see a persistent drop in value.
Eventually, all the new money in circulation will begin chasing consumer goods, and then we will see an increase in price inflation. We expect the bond market to anticipate this event, which is why we think mortgage rates will head higher before price inflation becomes more of a front-burner issue.
For the week of
April 4, 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET RECAP
The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index always attracts a good deal of media attention. This month's edition was no different. In fact, because of a strong pessimistic bias, it probably drew more attention than it should have.
Once again, falling home prices elevated fears of a double-dip recession in the home-buying market and a longer slog toward recovery than once anticipated. According to Case-Shiller, the average sale price of single-family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1 percent from December and 3.1 percent from a year ago. Only two areas – San Diego and Washington – recorded price increases year-over-year.
We offer our usual caveats with the Case-Shiller index: For one, it's two months in arrears. Recent data on home prices have been less dour. In addition, 20 metropolitan areas is hardly a complete picture. Real estate is much more localized than it was during the recession. Even within major metropolitan areas, we see differences in pricing trends. So, yes, on a national level prices have fallen, and have fallen 31 percent since the 2006 highs. However, prices, like mortgage rates, can go only so low, and there isn't much room on the downside, as many local markets have already shown.
It's also worth noting that the pending home sales index rose 2.1 percent in February, which is encouraging when considering how miserable the weather was in February. What's more, the pending home sales index has trended higher since bottoming in June, with contract activity 20 percent above the low point. More activity isn't a price panacea, but it helps.
Shadow inventory has been the counterclaim, because it continues to apply downward pricing pressure. The good news is that shadow inventory is improving. CoreLogic reports that 1.8 million properties make up the shadow inventory of foreclosures, but that's down 11 percent from a year ago. We expect this inventory to dissipate further, thanks to robust economic growth and a pickup in job creation and wage growth.
Low financing rates will also help the liquidation process. A quote below 5 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains the norm. To be honest, the norm has held longer than we had expected. That's a good thing, to be sure, but it does tend to induce complacency and procrastination at times.
Buyers these days have to balance high inventory levels against the likelihood of higher mortgage rates. Excess supply is a persuasive argument to house shop at a leisurely pace. However, just because rising prices aren't an immediate concern doesn't mean rising mortgage rates aren't. We noted in last week's commentary that buyers have the best of both worlds – low mortgage rates and low home prices. We doubt we will be saying that this time next year.
Although rates have headed higher, but not as high as many, including us, would have thought. Granted, we were right in saying that rates holding under 4 percent were unlikely, but that was an easy call. Four percent simply isn't sustainable when inflation is the norm.
Inflation is the reason we still think rates are headed higher. Many market watchers have been lulled into a false sense of security because consumer and producer prices – though rising in the past two months – haven't spiked out of control.
There are many variables that go into prices – productivity gains, technology, consumer demand – all of which can offset the increase in money supply that has occurred over the past two years. It can't last forever. If we peruse any long-term chart of consumer and producer prices, we see that prices rise persistently higher. As a corollary, when we peruse a chart of the US dollar, we see a persistent drop in value.
Eventually, all the new money in circulation will begin chasing consumer goods, and then we will see an increase in price inflation. We expect the bond market to anticipate this event, which is why we think mortgage rates will head higher before price inflation becomes more of a front-burner issue.
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